Fighting the fire: On COP30

The 30th edition of the Conference of Parties (COP) concluded in Belem, Brazil, a city chosen for its proximity to the Amazon rainforest. The symbolism was high this year. It is 10 years since the Paris Agreement was signed by 195 countries — a pact to ensure that the globe did not heat up beyond 2°C of pre-industrial times and, as far as possible, contain it to 1.5°C. That was a goal easier stated than done; 2024 ended up being the first time that temperatures breached the 1.5°C territory though it will require several more such transgressions for 1.5°C to be the ‘new normal’. In all the years since, COPs have been about systematically getting all countries to move on the path of restructuring their economies away from their fossil-fuel hardwiring; apportioning responsibility — and finance — in ways to actualise these goals, and finally work towards addressing the damage that climate change had already done to societies, livelihoods and ecologies. While there has been success, in that most countries — even the United States — recognise that renewables are the future of energy, it has been challenging for countries to execute the transformation while also growing their economies and keeping their competitive edges sharp. This has led to the formation of the two broad blocs — one led by developed countries and affiliated allies that has pushed for hard targets and road maps to phase out fossil fuels, and the other by developing countries or petro states who reject such prescription and demand more money and action from the developed countries.

The Brazil COP sought to bring a change in the narrative by stressing ‘implementation’, and reminding the world that multilateralism and ‘mutirão’ (coming together) were indispensable to the Paris Agreement. While the absence of the U.S. weakened the developed country blocs, this year saw greater thrust on topics such as ‘adaptation’ and ‘just transition’ — concepts that acknowledge the everyday effects of climate change and stress practical preparatory steps and finance pledges to help countries burnish climate defences. India, which has been one of the prominent voices for developing country coalitions, was welcoming of the Brazil Presidency’s acknowledgement of concerns but did not declare its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (actions on adopting clean energy). The COP’s negotiation process often leaves one wondering about the net gains made, given that pollution, deforestation and climate denialism seem more voluble and visible but, as it is often said, this is humanity’s only opportunity to mitigate a cataclysm of its making.